It’s
the most wonderful time of the year, oh yeah and it’s also the Holiday season.
Well Happy Holidays to all of our Nerd 5 readers and let’s dive into
the time that I wait for all year, OSCAR SEASON!
Now, it’s not that I
love the Academy Awards and think they get things right all the
time (although I do love The Academy itself, but more on that in months to
come), in fact last year I couldn’t have disagreed more with some of the things
that won (*cough The Artist cough*).
I love this season because all the best films of the year are released around
this time. Sure summer blockbusters are great and every once in while there is
true gem that comes out during that time, but more often than not the best films
of the year get national releases between the end October and the end of
January. Which means it’s one of the best times of the year to go to the
movies.
A
quick side note. To be eligible for The Academy Awards that will air on
February 24, 2013, your film must be released in at least four theaters in Los Angles and New York by December 31, or have a limited
release run by that same time. A film will then get a wider released based upon
nominations it receives, the money it makes and the word of mouth/critical
praise it receives. Basically the 2013 Academy Awards honor films that were
released between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012.
So why does the end of the year become Oscar season? For the simple belief that
if your films is seen later in the year it will be fresh in the voters’
minds and be on more ballots.
Now
down to business. Recently I've been studying Oscar history to learn about the
films I should see that aren't already part of my general knowledge as a film
nerd. During this time I've come across a unique thing in Oscar history. I think the
chart says it the best.
2002 Oscar Best Picture Nominee
|
Film Description
|
2012 Potential Oscar Best Picture Nominee
|
Chicago (Winner)
|
A film adaptation of a
highly successful Broadway musical, with a well-known cast, a big budget and
a Christmas time release.
|
Les Miserables
|
Gangs of New York
|
A historical epic set
in the 1800’s that shaped the future of America directed by an industry giant
and starring Daniel Day-Lewis.
|
Lincoln
|
The Pianist
|
A thriller set in a
foreign country that tells a story of hiding from a militant political regime
while planning the perfect escape.
|
Argo
|
The Hours
|
A character study
surrounding an individual dealing with a mental illness and the effect that
has on their family and life in general
|
Silver Linings
Playbook
|
The Lord of The Rings:
The Two Towers
|
A visually stunning
sprawling epic, based on a book that was assumed unfilmable for many years,
that is only finally made possible by the passion of its director.
|
Life of Pi OR The
Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
|
Is
this merely a crazy random happenstance? Have filmmakers (and studios in
particular) figured out the keys to getting an Oscar nomination? Is there a
secret pact in Hollywood that a certain type of film will be nominated every
ten years? Well, I’ll let the conspiracy theorists think on the last question. I
would just say its part crazy random happenstance, and part filmmakers knowing how
to get their film in the Oscar race. So what’s to point of all this? Let’s have
some fun by seeing if this coincidence has any real predictive value. As the
next Nerd 5 top 5. (For the purposes of this article I’m going to use The Hobbit: An Expected Journey over Life of Pi in order to make a more
direct comparison however I do believe that Life
of Pi has a better shot than The
Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey) The list is ranked in order of things that
I’d be the most shocked to see, 5 being the least shocking thing 1 being the
most.
5. Lincoln will be shut out.
Lincoln staring Daniel Day-Lewis as the
ground-breaking 16th president and directed by Stephen Spielberg
could very easily walk away empty handed.
There has been a lot buzz about this film so far and most of it is very
mixed. It’s pretty much a lock that Day-Lewis will be nominated, but don’t be
so sure that he will for sure take home his THIRD statue (that would put him in
some very rare company: Walter Brennan, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid
Bergman all have three and Katharine Hepburn is the only person with 4 wins for
acting). Day-Lewis' previous two wins come for My
Left Foot (1989) and There Will Be
Blood (2007). Keep an eye out for a dark horse candidate to come on strong
here in the last few months and overtake Day-Lewis. Overall Lincoln will have enough name value, buzz, and campaigning to get
nominated, but will fall short on Oscar night. Don’t worry, most people involved
with this film already have Oscar’s to keep them cozy at night.
4. Anne
Hathaway and Jennifer Lawrence will take home Best Supporting Actress and Best
Actress, respectively.
Two young and up-and-coming actresses will
cement their place in Hollywood on this night. Let’s take this one category at
a time. Starting with Best Actress, this might be a bit of a stretch due to the
fact that Lawrence’s part might not be big enough for a Best Actress nod; however,
she is the female lead of Silver Linings
Playbook and everyone seems to agree that even though the film itself is
nothing special, her performance is. It seems very likely Lawrence will pick up
her second nomination in her young career and based on history she’ll take it
home as the only win for the film Silver Linings
Playbook (and based on this theory we are also going to say that Robert De Nero pick with up his 6th nomination but fail to capture his third Oscar).
On to Supporting Actress, in 2002 Catherine-Zeta Jones and Queen Latifah were both nominated for Chicago and it was pretty much a given
that one would win. What does that mean for 2012? It looks like Anne Hathaway
and Amanda Seyfried are both in line for nominations and the Academy will
give the award to Hathaway for giving a very strong rendition (hopefully, we'll see) of the Les Miserables signature song I Dreamed a Dream, just as they did for
Zeta Jones and All That Jazz from Chicago.
3. Les Miserables will (somehow) be viewed
as a bigger visual achievement then The
Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
As
crazy as that sounds, if the pattern holds true, Les Miserables is going to take home 4 of the 8 major technical
awards, while The Hobbit: An Unexpected
Journey will only take home 2. The major technical awards include: Best
Costume, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best
Makeup, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Art Direction (renamed this
year to Production Design, but serves the same purpose). Let’s set aside Makeup
and Cinematography (as in ’02 these awards went to other films than the 5 best
picture nominees and I feel that will happen here too.) The Sound awards will
be split between the two films, and quite honestly that seems fair. Each film
presents its own sound challenge, for The
Hobbit it will be creating the sounds of Middle Earth, a fictional fantasy
world, and Les Miserables will have
to make song and orchestration sound good. Oh, and by the way Les Miserables’ songs were all performed
live on set, something that simply is not done in today’s Hollywood. Also, The
Hobbit will take home best visual effects, but it stops there. Costume,
Editing, and Art Direction will all go to Les
Miserables, which is completely realistic.
Traditionally The Academy loves
costume period dramas and being set in 19th Century France. This film
fits the bill. It might not be the most deserving film in all technical
categories, but if it's nominated it will be a factor in the outcome.
2. Les Miserables will win 6 Oscars
including Best Picture.
Chicago, 2002’s Best Picture, was a favorite
before the night began, but as the night wore on it looked like The Pianist might actually pull off the
upset. Why? The Pianist took home
Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay and it looked like a home run
that The Pianist would take home Best
Picture as well. But when the envelope was opened it was Chicago’s name that was read out. Only one other time in Oscar
history has this happened. In 1935 The
Informer won Director, Actor, and Writing (as the category was called at the
time) but lost Best Picture to Mutiny on the Bounty. So what are the
odds that this happens again? I give it
a 2% percent chance (2 times this has happened in 85 years). They say
that Les Miserables will likely pick up
one of the other awards Chicago did
not or it will not take home Best Picture, but who knows it’s happened
before it could happen again.
So
how can something that has only 2% chance of happening not be my most shocking
prediction? Because based on what happened ten years ago...
1.
Ben Affleck will take
home Best Director and Best Actor.
…and
if he does Affleck would be the person in history to do so. If we hold the 2002
results as a predictor of things to come, then Mr. Affleck will have very
successfully removed himself from the Hollywood doghouse and made history while
doing it. In ’02 The Pianist took
home Best Director and Actor. In order for this to happen again Argo, which Affleck both stars in and
directs, will definitely go down in Hollywood history. Let’s put into context
what this means. Only 9 people in all of Hollywood history have been nominated
for both Actor and Director and only 1 of them for two different films. Let’s
get the oddity out of the way. In 2005
George Clooney become the only person to be nominated for directing and acting
on the same night for two different films. He won for Best Supporting Actor for the film Syriana
but then opened his acceptance speech with “Well, I guess I’m not winning
Best Director tonight” which turned out to be a true statement. That leaves only
8 people to have ever accomplished the feat that Affleck is trying for this
year; the coveted Best Director, Best Actor double nomination for the same film
on the same night and none of them have won both. In fact no person has ever
won both awards in their entire career.
i.
Warren
Beatty – Heaven Can Wait AND Reds
a.
Heaven Can Wait – lost both award
b.
Reds -- won
director, lost actor
ii. Clint Eastwood – Unforgiven AND Million Dollar
Baby
a.
Unforgiven – won director, lost actor
b.
Million Dollar Baby – won director, lost actor
iii. Orson Wells – Citizen Kane
a.
Lost
both awards (although he did pick up best screenplay)
iv. Laurence Olivier – Hamlet
a.
Lost
director, won actor
v. Woody Allen – Annie Hall
a.
Won
director, lost actor
vi. Kenneth Branagh – Henry V
a.
Lost
both awards
vii. Kevin Costner – Dances With Wolves
(1990)
a.
Won
director, lost actor
viii. Roberto Benigni – Life Is Beautiful
a.
Lost
director, won actor
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